The numbers continue to love Utah

Whatifsports.com, who lives for simulations involving actual teams and actual statistics, ran their simulation of the 2008 NBA Playoffs 10,000 times and determined that the Jazz have the best chance of anyone to win the championship.

Adding this to Hollinger's numbers, which show the Jazz getting to the Finals, and Section F Sports' numbers, which show the Jazz getting to the Finals, and it appears the computers have a crush on Utah.

As a Jazz fan, this makes me nervous. Last year every expert and their dog picked Houston to win their first-round series against the Jazz. Utah won in seven games. This year the Jazz are the trendy pick by humans and cyborgs alike. It's never good to be the favorite.

Someone needs to write an article about how the Jazz are horrible, and soon.

Playoff predictions, Part 2

Picking the East winners this year was easy. I'm not worried about the fact that I didn't pick any upsets among the four series, as I believe no series will be close, with the exception of the Cavs/Wizards matchup.

The real work begins here. The West is the deepest and possibly the best collection of eight teams in one conference ever. Last year's champion, San Antonio, is currently in possession of the three seed, while a New Orleans team with little to no playoff experience has the two seed.

That's crazy.

So let's get into it.



Los Angeles (1) vs. Denver (8)

This 1 vs. 8 matchup is very different from the East's Boston vs. Atlanta. Denver is a 50-win team with three valid All-Stars. Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony and Marcus Camby are all great players who can score and play defense. They can beat you inside and outside and on the run.

Everyone will bring up the fact that they gave up 4 million points a game in the regular season. I firmly believe this was a matter of laziness and not a matter of inability. Camby was the Defensive Player of the Year in 2007, and AI's freakish quickness lets him stay with anyone. And for all I dislike about Melo, he can defend, as well.

On the other side, the Lakers scare me (as a Jazz fan) more than anyone but San Antonio. Kobe is a top-3 player in the game, and he's very motivated to show he can win without Shaq. Add an All-Star forward in Pau Gasol (a stolen forward, but a great forward nonetheless) and a very talented small forward who loves being the third option in Lamar Odom, and this is a dangerous team. If Andrew Bynum can return and be the same Bynum he was in January, they've gotta be favorites to win it all.

Game 1 is going to tell us a lot. If Denver is serious about playing defense, they've got a real shot to beat the Lakers. If not, they lose in five.

I'll play the middle here.

L.A. in seven.



New Orleans (2) vs. Dallas (7)

The Mavericks have been to an NBA Finals. No one other than Peja Stojakovic and Bonzi Wells for the Hornets has any decent playoff experience. Chris Paul and Jason Kidd are both great point guards, but they aren't exactly strong defenders.

Dirk Nowitzki is a shooting guard disguised in a seven-foot frame. David West is one of the better post players in the league.

Peja is hitting over three 3-pointers a game and shooting 44% from behind the arc. Josh Howard has been performing well in the playoffs since 2005, and will be a major factor on both ends of the floor.

These teams match up very well, making this another tough call. In the end, I'm going to go with Dallas. Their experience is just too much for the young Hornets. But it won't be easy.

Dallas in 7.



Phoenix (6) vs. San Antonio (3)

This is hands-down the best series in the first round. It might end up being the best series of the entire playoffs. Phoenix traded Shawn Marion for Shaq last February for the express purpose of getting past the Spurs in the playoffs. At the time, I was not a fan of the trade, but Shaq's been playing well enough that I think their plan just might work.

Phoenix was thiiiiiiis close to beating Tim Duncan's team in the 2nd round of the Western Conference last year, and minus the completely bogus suspension of Amare Stoudamire for game 7, they would have won the series.

Cons for the Suns: Steve Nash is one year older, Boris Diaw isn't the same player he was last season and neither is Leandro Barbosa.

Pros: Amare is playing like a monster with Shaq taking some of the attention from him down low. Raja Bell is still good for physical defense and outside shooting. The Suns' run-and-gun style might be enough to tire the Spurs out this time around.

San Antonio is still San Antonio. Duncan is as efficient as ever in the post, no one on the Suns can guard Tony Parker off the dribble, and if Manu Ginobili is healthy, he's good for at least 27 a game in the playoffs.

My heart says pick Phoenix, especially since they have homecourt advantage, but my head says go with the Spurs.

San Antonio wins in seven games, but it's ridiculously close. We're talking overtime games, multiple game-winning buzzer-beaters, that kind of thing.



Utah (4) vs. Houston (5)

Number-crunchers love the Jazz. ESPN's resident stat geek, John Hollinger, picks then to come out of the West. Adam Hoff, of Section F Sports, plugged the season numbers into his own mathematical contraption and came up with the same result.

As an admitted Jazz fanatic, even I don't like Utah that much. The Jazz have zero interior defense, and when they get down, I question their ability to stay tough under the pressure.

I think the reason we see so much love from the spreadsheets is that the Jazz blow out teams at home and don't ever get blown out themselves. As Hollinger noted, Utah was beaten by 20 or more only once this season; and that was the last game against the Spurs. That doesn't mean there haven't been some bad losses, as well. The tank job against the Spurs on Wednesday and the awful defense that led to a Mavs win last week come to mind.

Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur have shown the ability to defend well in the playoffs. Last season they performed admirably against the Rockets and again against Golden State in the second round. I personally hope we see Kyrylo Fesenko, rookie center out of the Ukraine, get some good minutes. His scoring ability is raw, but he's a legit seven-footer with agility you rarely see in big men.

However, coach Jerry Sloan refused to use center Rafael Araujo last year against Duncan in a situation where I think he could have done some good, so who knows if Fesenko will even see the floor?

The Rockets are a good team, as evidenced by their 22-game win streak earlier this season, but they just don't match up well against the Jazz. Utah can stick either Andrei Kirilenko or Ronnie Brewer on Tracy McGrady and slow him down. Houston has no answer for Boozer, Okur or Deron Williams. The Jazz have proven they can win in Houston.

This is the least interesting of all the West's first-round matchups.

Jazz in six, with a couple blowouts by Utah along the way.


There you have it. This is my first time ever going so in-depth with my playoff predictions, so if my picks are way off ( like they were with March Madness), maybe I'll think twice about doing it next year.

Feel free to post your comments on where I'm dead on or way off. I allow anonymous comments, so if you want to tell me how much I stink, feel free to do so without any fear of retribution.

Playoff fever!

This Saturday ABC/ESPN is broadcasting four straight NBA playoff games from 10:30 a.m. to around 10:30 p.m. Mountain Time.

That's a lot of high-quality basketball. And I'll be on my couch watching every second of it.

The Western Conference brand of the playoffs, especially, is chock full of goodness, as every single one of the eight teams competing to make it to the Finals has 50 wins. Every one.

The East has some great teams, too, including the 66-win Celtics. We'll get at least two or three great series from the Celtics, Magic, Wizards and Cavs.

But the West is where it's at. No series will go less than six games, and if there's a sweep in any of the series, I'll be shocked.

So to help you make sense of the awesomeness that is the NBA playoffs, here are my predictions for each of the first-round series.


Boston (1) vs. Atlanta (8)

Sorry, Atlanta, you're toast. None of the Celtics Big Three has won an NBA championship. They are on a mission to destroy any team on their way to getting that first ring. Josh Smith will get a few SportsCenter Top 10-worthy dunks, Joe Johnson will play well, and maybe if Boston only had Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, the Hawks could pull out a victory.

But with Kevin Garnett around, there's no way on earth Boston even comes close to dropping this series.

Celtics in 4.


Detroit (2) vs. Philadelphia (7)

Detroit is the ultimate "fly beneath the radar" team this year. No one is talking about them, but the Pistons are essentially the same team that won it all in 2004. Yet somehow I haven't even heard the name Rip Hamilton once during the regular season. Sure, Hamilton's scoring average is down three pointers per game, but his shooting percentages are up, as well as his assists.

Chauncey Billups is still dishing out assists and hitting big 3-pointers. Tayshaun Prince still has 17-foot long arms. And Rasheed Wallace is still an elite big man, with the ability to hit from deep and take it inside.

Philly has some nice pieces; I love Andre Iguodala, and if the Jazz could somehow sign Samuel Dalembert, I'd be a happy man. Rookie forward Thaddeus Young has been putting up some pretty impressive numbers since the All-Star break.

But in the end, Detroit's experience is just too much. I'll give the Sixers two wins, no more.

Detroit in 6.



Orlando (3) vs. Toronto (6)

I love Dwight Howard. The kid is 22 and unstoppable down low. He's averaging 20 and 14, while shooting 57% from the field. His combination of power and quickness is almost unfathomable.

So the Magic are fantastic in the paint. Then they add Hedo Turkoglu and his 20 ppg, while shooting 40% from the 3-point line. Rashard Lewis is another 40% 3-point shooter, and while he isn't worth the $15 million a year the Magic are paying him, Lewis is still a 6-10 small forward with range.

That's a dangerous inside-out game, and it carried Orlando to a 16-4 start this season. Since then, they've fallen off the map as the NBA's attention has focused on the Celtics and the entire Western Conference.

Still, I believe the Magic are going to go far. I love the Raptor's Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon, but there's not much beyond that in Toronto.

Orlando in 5.


Cleveland (4) vs. Washington (5)

A rematch from last year's first round, and the most intriguing matchup in the East. The Wizards' Deshawn Stevenson has made a name for himself by calling Cleveland's LeBron James "overrated." The whole thing is weird. No one except for Washington and Jazz fans knew who Stevenson was before his comments. But he set off a firestorm of comments back and forth between the Cavs and Wizards, and even Charles Barkley has gotten involved, calling the Wizards "the dumbest team in the history of civilization."

Washington star Gilbert Arenas even said he wanted the Cavs in the first round.

Looks like he gets the rematch he's been asking for.

In last year's series, LeBron James reportedly psyched out Arenas while Gilbert was at the free-throw line in a potentially series-changing situation.

The Cavs swept the Wizards in four games that time around, though to be fair, Washington wasn't exactly healthy. This time around, they have a (hopefully) healthy Arenas, along with a dangerous Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, who is a valuable third option.

The Cavs? Well, they have King James, which is nice. But I wasn't impressed with Cleveland before their mid-season trade, and I'm even less impressed with them now. The only player I'm even going to mention is Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and he's only effective if he's healthy.

So essentially this matchup is between the King and Washington's three stars.

This is a tough one to call, but I see the Cavs winning in seven. James is a superstar, and superstars get out of the first round in the playoffs. Especially in the East.

Tomorrow: My Western Conference picks.

Romney's pretty funny

From the Annual Radio and Television Correspondents Association Dinner last night.

I know I'm biased and everything, but I can't help but feel we missed out on a great candidate this time around.

That did not go well

Is it possible to get absolutely destroyed more effectively than Utah was tonight?

I believe it is not.

The Spurs jumped out to a 10-point lead in about three minutes and never looked back, leading by as many as 30 before settling on a 109-80 margin of victory.

San Antonio shot 74% in the first half and led by 26 after two. They cooled off substantially afterwards, and ended up shooting a pathetic 59% for the night, 50% from the 3-point line.

The Jazz's lack of interior defense has never been so apparent. Time after time Tony Parker or Tim Duncan got into the lane for uncontested layups or dunks. Okur and Boozer spent most of their time watching this parade into the Jazz paint.

What I wouldn't give for a Kurt Thomas or Samuel Dalembert.

Factor two in the loss: fast-break points. The Jazz made no effort to get back on defense, especially in the first quarter. San Antonio racked up 12 fast-break points in the first 12 minutes of play.

Factor three: the Spurs defense was stifling. Boozer was rendered completely irrelevant by Duncan. Booz knows he can't take Duncan to the hoop, so he was left with taking contested jump shot after contested jump shot. In 26 minutes Boozer was 3-8 from the field, though he did manage to pull down 10 rebounds, mostly when the game was well out of hand. Every time a Jazz player even looked like they were going to the basket, the San Antonio defense collapsed that was the end of that.

Looks like the Spurs still own Utah.

What is it about being at home that transforms the Jazz into an entirely different team? I know homecourt is a real advantage, but the way it seems to affect Utah is just ridiculous.

April 5 win over the Spurs in Salt Lake:

Jazz hold the Spurs to 36% shooting and only 64 points.

April 17 loss to Spurs in San Antonio:

The Spurs shoot 73% in the first half for 65 points, effectively ending the game at that point. They score 109 on the night.

April 5:

The Jazz make 10 3-pointers, shooting 52% from behind the arc. San Antonio makes only two 3-pointers, good for 16%.

April 17:

Spurs make eight 3-pointers, shooting 50% from behind the arc. The Jazz make only two 3-pointers, good for 16%


Such disparity. These are the same two teams, right? Right?

Part of me wonders if Utah intentionally threw the game. Maybe Sloan and Larry Miller realized there was no way the team would beat the Spurs in the playoffs, and chose to face Houston without the homecourt advantage instead.

But I can't believe that. Sloan's personality strikes me as such that he is incapable of tanking a game. Also, after the way they beat San Antonio in Salt Lake two weeks ago, the Spurs weren't looking as invincible as they usually do.

The silver lining to this horrendus loss: now the Jazz will play Houston in the first round instead of San Antonio. I want no part of the Spurs in the playoffs. Here's hoping Phoenix's move to get past them (trading for Shaq) pays off.

In conclusion: ugh. So much for going into the playoffs on a high note.

For good luck

Here's hoping the Jazz are the big scary Australian dude tonight and not the little one who runs in and tries to push him down.

Latest from Kenya

The situation in Kenya after their disputed presidential election is improving, but still has a long way to go to stability.

After the election between Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki resulted in widespread violence, former UN secretary Kofi Annan flew in to begin peace talks between the candidates.

I must admit that I was skeptical that Annan could get anything done. After initial efforts to get the two Kenyans to meet failed, I was sure the violence would only become more widespread as the people felt more and more frustrated with their government.

But instead, Odinga, Kibaki and other Kenyans sat down and hammered out the National Accord and Reconciliation Act. Essentially, Kibaki retained his presidency and Odinga became Prime Minister, a position that had not existed in Kenya since 1964.

In short, I was wrong. Diplomacy and compromise appears to have worked in this situation, which is fantastic. More nations should learn from this example, especiallythose in Africa.

A new problem has arisen, however, in a large gang, named Mungiki, that is responsible for at least four civilian deaths yesterday in Nairobi. Kenya's top-selling paper, Daily Nation, makes some interesting accusations about this gang:

"There are convincing indications that very senior politicians in both the past and present government used the sect to carry out dirty political work. Perhaps that is where the impunity springs from..."

I certainly hope not, but it makes sense. The government is doing its best to crack down on this gang, which has been around since March of last year. Overcoming the election turmoil was a major step in the right direction. Eliminating the threat Mungiki poses to the safety of average Kenyans would be another.