Look at this photo. It's November, 2009, and BYU has just beat Utah, at home, for the third time in four seasons. All three wins had been close, but they were wins, and it was a good time to be a BYU fan.
That was the last time BYU beat Utah in football. 9 years and three months ago.
And, for the first time since then, I've felt like BYU has a QB who can have a good day against Utah.
The average stat line for BYU quarterbacks from 2007 to 2017:
17 for 36
205 yards
less than one touchdown
just over one interception
For a sparkling NCAA quarterback rating of 98.6.
Neither Max Hall, nor Jake Heaps, nor Riley Nelson, nor Taysom Hill nor Tanner Mangum could have a good day against Utah's defense the last decade. The last BYU offense to put up 30 or more points against Utah was John Beck in 2006.
That said, the best passing day a BYU QB had against Utah since Beck was true freshman Zach Wilson, who posted a 20-29 passing day, with 204 yards, with 2 TD and 1 INT. It was the third-best passer rating posted on Utah in all of 2018.
Again, he was a true freshman last year.
So can sophomore Wilson put up good numbers versus a Utah offense that's as good as it's been in the past and maybe even better? I think he can, and I think that's key to winning in Provo on Thursday.
So I'll be there Thursday, cheering my guts out at 9 PM for my Cougars to finally come through after eight tries versus Utah. Here's hoping they give me a lot to cheer about.
Aaaaanyway, I believe in BYU's QB again, so it's time for another Guess the Score contest! Leave your best guess for what the score will be Thursday for a chance to win a $50 Amazon gift card!
Submissions must be made before kickoff on Thursday (around 8:15 PM, Mountain Time).
The upcoming schedule is not an overly difficult one, and there are games against Texas, Houston, Virginia, Boise State and Cal that will be barometers for whether or not BYU belongs at the big kid table. And with a returning quarterback on many Heisman watch lists, a running back who had the most successful freshman and sophomore seasons ever at BYU and a wide receiver corp that is better than the Cougars have seen in years, they have the talent to prove they belong.
The question is the offensive line. They have been mediocre to bad since 2009, and the coaching staff has had some time to fix it. If there are not major improvements this season, this team will lose games it should not. It's that cut and dried.
Overall, I have to admit I am not that optimistic. I attended the Spring Scrimmage, and Taysom did not look very improved over last season. Overthrew some balls, underthrew some, shorted a few, etc. Accuracy was a big problem, in my opinion. And the offensive line needs to take such a big leap from last season to this, that I just don't see it happening. BYU will likely go 8-4, a middling record considering the schedule.
As for the Jazz, they are sitting on a potential top-5 pick in the best lottery of the last decade, are searching for a new head coach, and have five young players all taken in the top 12 of past drafts (Burke, Hayward, Kanter, Favors, Burks). That is a lot of talent, and adding another very nice piece this summer will put Utah is a fantastic position to succeed in the ensuing years.
And a lot of that is dependent on who the new coach is. If the new guy is like Mike Brown, the Jazz's young guys will wallow in a terrible system with no structure, little development, and few wins. If the new guy is the second coming of Greg Popovich, the young players will flourish, talent will develop into elite talent, and the Jazz could compete for the Western Conference title within three or four years.
Of course, that also hinges on the Jazz picking an alpha-level, franchise player in the draft. The Jazz have a lot of capable second and third bananas, but no one who can carry a team, scoring 25 points a game and getting 10 assists or rebounds to go along with it. Add one of these guys, and Hayward can slide back into his natural spot of being Robin to someone's Batman, as this last season clearly proved he is not capable of being The Guy.
So two jobs, Jazz brass: Find the next Greg Popvich and draft the next LeBron. No big deal.
And BYU? Just win. Stomp Virginia. Embarrass Texas again. Don't let Boise State sneak past you. Win the tough games, up the respect you have nationwide, and hopefully you won't be on the outside looking in when this Power 5 Conference thing is finalized.
The Wisconsin game went how I thought it would for BYU's defense. The Badgers ran hard and ran effectively. They didn't break as many long runs as I expected, but they got he job done on the ground. Wisconsin's quarterback, Stave, had a pretty good outing, completing 70% of his passes for 200 yards and a touchdown. BYU's blitzes just could not get through his protection, giving him upwards of six or seven seconds to find open guys, and BYU's secondary is nowhere good enough to handle that.
What disappointed me was the offense. Taysom struggled to find guys when he had time, and he had more time than I expected he would. Without being able to see the entire field, I can only go with what ESPN showed me on Saturday, and what they showed me was Taysom having time to find receivers. Greg Wrubell, BYU play-by-play guy extraordinaire, has stated that the Cougar receivers could not get any separation from the Badger secondary. Either way, I am disappointed. If Taysom had open guys and just didn't find them, it's sad. If this BYU receiving corp was unable to get open, that's sad. Just an offensive fail all the way around.
In other news, 4-star forward from Arizona Payton Dastrup changed his commitment from Ohio State to BYU today. It was less than a week ago that he made his initial choice to join the Buckeye program, and it's weird he had such an about face.
Anyway, he's 6'9" and 230 and pretty coveted across the country for his big man skills. Let's have a look.
From this video, Mr. Dastrup looks incredibly earthbound and slow. He has decent passing instincts, and a decent shot, but man, that turnaround will get blocked out of the gym in college.
Dastrup is going on a mission before ever suiting up for the Cougars, however, so don't expect to see him until 2016, at the earliest. Such is the life of a BYU fan.
How about that Boise State game, huh? BYU's offense looked nigh unstoppable in the first half, and then sort of fell apart in the third and fourth quarter. This is a pattern that's becoming a concern. I'd like to see an uptick in production after halftime, but maybe that's asking too much.
Anyway, Taysom further showed that he can consistently hit people in stride downfield, a skill BYU has been missing in its quarterbacks for far too long. The offensive line even looked fairly competent, giving him upwards of four seconds to throw sometimes. Amazing.
In the end, it was a convincing win over a pretty good team. Nice work, guys.
Next up, the Wisconsin Badgers. A perennially good, never championship-level team. Their finishes over the last five years have been between 8-5 and 11-2. This year they are 6-2, and have already lost to Arizona State (on a controversial call) and Ohio State. These are not losses to be ashamed of, but they show this Badger team can be beat.
Wisconsin relies heavily on their massive offensive line and two star running backs. The O-line average over 6'4 and 300 pounds across the board, and back Melvin Gordon is averging 8.7 yards per carry on 124 touches. That's insane. That's Luke Staley-level running insane. And to add to that, Badger James White is averaging 6.3 yards a carry on his 127 attempts. Just thinking about this, combined with memories of BYU at Notre Dame 2012, gives me nightmares. The Irish racked up almost 300 yards on the ground at over 6 yards per carry, and passed the ball three times in the second half.
If Wisconsin gets a lead on Saturday, I fear BYU will get a steady diet of run, run, run, and suddenly the game will be over. BYU needs Taysom to open the game up early. They need him to find Matthews or Hoffman or Apo on a few deep balls, score quickly in the first quarter, and then score quickly again. If they can force Wisconsin to panic a bit, to come away from the power run game, I like the Cougars' chances.
But if the offense comes out sluggish after the bye, and stalls early and often, it's going to be rough to get the ball back often.
That said, I believe in Taysom. I know I was really down on him after the Utah game, but in fairness, he was historically, epically bad through three games this year. Then a miracle happened, and he figured out how to put touch on the football. I can't explain it. No one can. I'm just happy it happened.
But back to the Wisconsin game. Taysom will be rushed and hurried and have two seconds to find an open guy and get rid of the ball. But with how he showed his ability to use the tight ends against Boise, he's going to be really unpredictable to defenses from now one. He can go deep, middle, dump it short to Jamaal, find crossing routes and fades. And if you worry too much about his arm, he'll take off and pick up 20 yards on the ground. An absolute nightmare to handle.
I'm more worried about being on the road against a decent BCS team. BYU just historically does not win those games. And Wisconsin is 43-4 at home since 2004, a ridiculous number that really makes you pause.
That said, games are not won on the backs of history. BYU can go into Camp Randall and win. Wisconsin can lose a home game in November. Taysom can get the biggest win a sophomore BYU quarterback has ever had.
That seems crazy to me, but there it is, on Cougarstats.com:
9/20/2012 Boise State 7 BYU 6
9/24/2004 Boise State 28 BYU 27
10/30/2003 Boise State 50 BYU 12
It's just odd that two mid-major teams within 400 miles of each other have only played three times, but I guess they've never been in the same conference, so that helps.
The last two losses were both heartbreakers, as Matt Payne missed an easy chip shot at the end of the game to give Boise the win in 2004, and Riley Nelson supplied the Broncos with their only points on a pick-six to secure the loss for BYU in 2012.
This time around, Boise State is playing the gritty, run-first, doesn't really have an arm quarterback. Taysom Hill is on a roll, having increased his passer rating every game this season, and settling on an impressive 161.88 against Houston.
The BSU starting quarterback, Grant Hedrick, did put up okay passing numbers against Nevada last week. Completing 18 of 21 passes is nice, but he threw zero touchdowns and did have a pick. His eight rushes for 123 yards is more impressive, until you take into account Nevada's 114 ranking in team defense for the NCAA.
And let's be honest: BYU's defense can corral running quarterbacks. I'm much, much more worried about a quarterback passing for 400 yards than I am a quarterback rushing for 200.
I expect an easy win for BYU. The offensive line gave Taysom some honest to good protection at times on Saturday, and if they keep improving, and Hill gets more and more time to throw, he's going to be impossible to stop.
1. Georgia Tech runs a triple option system. Bronco does not lose to triple option systems. Georgia Tech really had no chance.
2. Once GT started blitzing BYU on every down during the second half, the Cougar offense struggled a lot. While I'm glad Taysom is at the point where he's great if he gets time to throw, now we have to wait for him to mature to the point that he can read blitzes and make defenses pay for leaving guys uncovered. That may take a while. I expect every defense we play from now on to bring the house often.
Houston thoughts:
1. These guys may be the worst 5-0 team ever. They beat a 1-4 Memphis team by 10 points, and an 0-6 Temple by 9.
2. I am worried about their quarterback, freshman John O'Korn. He throws for about 250 yards per game, and has 11 touchdowns to only one interception all season. If he throws to the sidelines to take advantage of the ridiculous cushions BYU corners will give his receivers, and can hit a deep pass or three, he can put up points.
So it's all going to come down to how well Houston can pressure Taysom, and how well BYU's secondary can do their jobs.
Taysom sure proved me wrong, eh? He went from overthrowing receivers by 15 yards to dropping perfectly thrown footballs directly into the hands of a streaking Mitch Matthews for touchdowns.
I don't know how he figured out how to put some touch on the ball, or lead a receiver, but he did. If it sticks, BYU has itself a quarterback.
Other thoughts from Friday's game:
1. I feel bad for Chuckie. Dude's a gamer, and losing the rest of the season is a tragedy.
2. The defense played out of their minds, even against the backup QB. Lots of pass breakups, which was good to see.
3. KVN is a robot of some kind.
4. Bronco is the worst at developing backup quarterbacks. The game was well in hand at the start of the fourth quarter, yet Taysom remained in there, taking hits he didn't need to take. Ammon finally came in very late, handed the ball off a few times, and went home. If Taysom ever goes down with an injury this year, and we have to rely on a completely unproven Ammon, with zero live balls thrown, I'm not going to be pleased.
5. The offensive line was a sieve more often than not. That's gotta change.
Anyway, convincing win in a game I thought BYU would lose. On to Georgia Tech!
It's the annual Friday night game between the Aggies and BYU! This used to be a throwaway every year, a chance for BYU to rest its injured starting quarterback (2006) or get the backups some good time in a blowout (2008). But recently the competition has been tougher, and BYU even dropped the 2010 matchup 31-16.
More recent history has BYU winning two close games by a combined 6 points. And last year showed a ridiculous defensive slugfest where the Cougar defense held the Aggies to 3 points and still almost lost the game.
And last year is the game that has the most importance when determining what will happen tonight. Chuckie Keaton, dual threat extraordinaire, threw for 27 touchdowns and rushed for 619 yards last season. BYU held him to zero touchdowns and 37 yards rushing. I attended this game, and was amazed at how well the Cougar defense, led by Van Noy and Ziggy, managed to beat him to the edge time and time again. He never broke off a long run. Never got that long pass play. He was bottled up as effectively as I've ever seen. The defense won the game that night, and I hope to see it again this time around.
While it's true Ziggy is doing his thing in the NFL now, I like what I've seen from linebackers Alani Fua and Uani' Unga. BYU's side-to-side pursuit is as good as it's been, and while I know Chuckie has gotten stronger and faster, I still don't see him going off. Utah State will score no more than 17 points.
On the offensive side of the ball for BYU, I still don't expect great things from Taysom. He only threw 17 times against MTSU, and while one or two of them were nice throws, the rest were easy pitch and catch plays where he had plenty of time and was not dealing with real pressure. Utah State will bring it, and he'll be far less comfortable in the pocket. I think we'll see another sub-50% passing performance from Hill tonight. Depending on how well the Aggie rush defense performs, and I expect them to be stout, we might see BYU score around 17 as well.
Considering Vegas has Utah State as a 6 point favorite, it makes sense. One or two turnovers will be the decider, and in the end, I see the Aggies getting their second win in 4 years, 21-17.
I hate to say it, but I feel like this game is meaningless for BYU.
Game Outcome 1: Taysom comes out and continues to miss wide open receivers. The defense clamps down on the Blue Raiders because they don't have a quarterback who can throw, but the offense struggles mightily and BYU wins by a score of something like 20-13. We learn nothing. Taysom still can't throw, and the defense is able to shut down at Conference-USA team. Good for them.
Game Outcome 2: Taysom throws lights out. He's hitting guys at a 70% clip, BYU wins by seven touchdowns, etc. etc. We learn nothing, because it's a Conference-USA team. Good for Taysom.
So here we are. I'll watch the game, but I don't expect to feel any differently about this team afterwards than I do now.
Amazing what losing four in a row to your rival does to your fanbase.
Utah Utes quarterback Travis Wilson throws a touchdown pass (Trent Nelson | The Salt Lake Tribune)
I feel like we've been here before. BYU's quarterback can't hit the broad side of a barn, but is able to scramble a bit to get a few first downs. BYU's defense is good enough to hold Utah to fewer than three touchdowns. But in the end, that quarterback's inability to hit wide-open receivers leads to a pathetic offensive showing and a loss for the Cougars.
Yes, Taysom has a stronger arm than Riley. Yes, Taysom is faster than Riley. But he is effectively Riley 2.0. BYU receivers didn't play lights out on Saturday, but there were enough times they had their man beat by two or three steps and Taysom either overthrew them by 10 yards or threw behind them. And those throws were the difference in the game.
So here BYU fans are once again. Stuck with a starting quarterback who cannot pass. Four points to consider:
1. BYU hasn't had a quarterback improve significantly as a player since John Beck. Max Hall was largely the same guy as a sophomore as he was as a senior. Heaps regressed from his freshman to sophomore year, and Nelson was a worse quarterback for BYU than he was at Utah State. Now Taysom fits the pattern. It's disturbing.
2. I was on board the "Taysom can figure it out, given time" train for a long time. But if you can find me a quarterback who threw for under 40%, three consecutive games, and ended up being an elite passer, I'd love to hear about it. I think he's done. John Beck's worst season at BYU, when he was a freshman, he still completed 50% of his passes, and 56% as a sophomore. I recognize that Taysom is young and may improve, but I just don't believe he will ever get to where a starting QB for BYU needs to be.
3. I'd like to see what Ammon Olsen can do. Let him play against Middle Tennessee State. We know Taysom can beat this team, having him out there accomplishes nothing. If Ammon can complete throws against an FBS school, in real game time, give him a shot to earn the starting spot. If he can't, bury him forever.
4. I feel terrible for the BYU offense, and especially KVN. He wanted this game, and holding Utah to 20 points is highly acceptable considering the squad's weakness at defensive back. The offense let them down.
Finally, it's time to announce the winner of the prediction contest. While Stuart's guess was way off in its margin of victory, he was the only one to predict a Utah victory, so he wins the $20. As he requested, I have donated it to Child's Play, a charity set up to get video games to sick kids in hospitals around the world.
For this year's rivalry game vs. Utah, I am taking the approach that no one can really know what will happen on Saturday. Unless Utah is head and shoulders better than BYU (2004, 2008), this is a dogfight, and until this pattern is disproved two or three years running, a dogfight it will remain.
Utah lost to a bad Oregon State team at home. BYU lost to a bad Virginia team on the road. Utah beat a good Utah State team at home. BYU beat a mediocre Texas team at home. BYU runs the ball well and passes poorly. Utah passes the ball well and runs poorly. BYU's defense is fairly great, Utah's defense is fairly bad.
All that adds up to a close game that will have me standing and screaming myself hoarse most of the night.
That's about it. I expect Wilson to throw well, as long as he gets time in the pocket (not a given). I expect Taysom to airmail some of his passes and throw grounders with others.
And finally, I expect Utah to play out of their minds, especially on defense. Somehow these guys play the best game of their season against BYU every year. The Cougars will come out too tentative or too amped, and will settle down as the game goes on. And the final score will be within 7 points either way.
As is tradition, I'm holding a Guess the Score contest. Leave a comment with your prediction of the final score, along with Taysom Hil''s rushing yards for the game. The winner gets $20.
I have never seen a bigger improvement in one week in any position group ever in all the football I've ever watched. That the offensive line imposed its will on Texas all night is crazy and I have no idea what happened. If we can see that kind of performance against Utah, it's going to be an interesting game. Full preview next week.
Freshman quarterback Taysom Hill cannot put the ball in the endzone against the Aggies, but ends up with a decent line and shows a lot of promise.
"Well, this season won't be one we talk about in years to come, but at least Taysom is getting a lot of reps in preparation for the years to come. These games will pay off immensely in 2013 and beyond," I thought.
Then? Hill is injured during a meaningless draw play at the very end of the Utah State game. It is reported that he needs knee surgery and will be out until next year.
So we're back to Riley and/or Lark playing at quarterback. Both are seniors, both have nothing to offer BYU in the years to come.
"Well, maybe Taysom will spend a lot of time working on his arm if he can't run as much, and maybe he'll come back next season a better passer. At least this defense will keep us in every game this year," I thought.
Then? Then Oregon State made BYU's secondary look silly en route to a 42-24 victory at LaVell Edwards Stadium today.
Backup Beaver QB Cody Vaz threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns, often finding wide open receivers for long gains. When Oregon State scored two quick touchdowns in the first quarter, mostly through the air, it became apparent that this defense is not as good as we believed. This defense merely had never seen a good passing attack until this afternoon.
So what are we left with? A good offense (apparently Riley is healthy enough to pass as a starting QB again) and a good defense. I no longer believe BYU will be in every game they play this season. I fully expect blowouts at the hands of Notre Dame and Georgia Tech, and San Jose State will give the Cougars a run for their money.
Utah State quarterback Chuckie Keeton - USU athletics
BYU and Utah State have split the last two games between them. The Aggies blew out BYU in Logan two years ago, and BYU barely squeaked out a last-second win in Provo last year.
Aggie head coach Gary Anderson has done a great job elevating the football program to respectability, as last season showed. A close loss to Auburn and other assorted heartbreakers showed Utah State could hang with most teams in the NCAA.
This year, the Aggies 4-1, having lost a squeaker to Wisconsin in Madison, and beating up on Mountain West teams Colorado State and UNLV by large margins. They also beat Utah in Salt Lake City, which would normally be fairly impressive, except Utah stinks this season.
And BYU lost to this stinky Utah team a couple weeks ago, so there's that.
My thoughts about tonight's game:
1. The Aggie players care about this game. They see beating BYU as another step towards becoming a legitimate FBS team. They will be ready for this game, both mentally and physically.
2. QB Chuckie Keaton is a rich man's Riley Nelson. He's got 1281 passing yards on the season with 11 TD's, completing 68% of those throws. He's also got 206 yards rushing. He's no Troy Smith, but he's good enough to make defenses account for his arm and his legs. I believe, however, that BYU's defense will be up to the task. I don't expect to see Keaton running free all night.
3. Utah State's corners are vulnerable. If Hill (assuming he plays) can attack them and connect with Hoffman and Apo on a regular basis, this will make it a lot easier for Williams and company to run.
4. The Cougars' offensive line will have their hands full with the Aggies' front seven. Their run defense is stout, and even if Williams is the next Doak Walker winner at BYU, if he's not getting good running lanes from the line, it could be a long night. And if the Aggies are able to shut the Cougar running game down, I'm not sure either Hill or Nelson are able to win on their arm alone.
In the end, I see a close game. BYU 24, Utah State 21.
Hawaii has a terrible defense, surrendering 49 points to a less-impressive-than-previously-thought USC in Week 1, and 69 points to Nevada in Week 3.
Their offense is also less than stellar, scoring 10 and 24 points each in the aforementioned games.
In a regular season, BYU should easily be able to roll this team, especially since it is in Provo.
But this year? A year in which Bronco is seriously considering starting Riley Nelson at quarterback tomorrow? One week after Nelson recorded a negative passer rating in Boise? A week after rumors came out that Nelson is dealing with severe back troubles? A week after Riley said he's probably lie to the coaches if they asked him if he thought he was healthy enough to play?
It says a lot about my current mindset that I believe even with BYU's fairly dominant defense and Hawaii's anemic offense, the Cougars could still easily lose tomorrow night of Riley Nelson is getting most of the snaps.
Now, do I believe Taysom Hill is the next Ty Detmer? Not really. I see Taysom as a healthier, more talented Riley; someone who can run effectively and pass less than effectively. But with BYU's defense, even a less effective passing QB should score enough points to win tomorrow.
All I want is a quarterback who can make every throw on the field with some consistency. The last one BYU has had was John Beck, and that was six years ago now. The Cougars have recruited and gotten a lot of big arms in the last few years (Heaps, Munns), and either these kids are busts or the coaching staff have had no idea how to develop them. There are some big names coming to BYU (Tanner Mangum, Billy Green), and I hope they can work out. Because this pattern of mediocre quarterbacks starting for the Cougars is becoming a trend.
My prediction: BYU 24, Hawaii 10. Nelson is given a short leash and Hill is able to do enough to get the win.
The starting quarterback struggles mightily, showing difficulty scoring points and even completing passes.
In the fourth quarter, BYU's coaching staff decides to bench the starter and bring in the backup. The backup engineers a 95-yard drive, mostly on the strength of a few runs and some iffy-looking passes, and punches it into the endzone in dramatic fashion.
This is where the similarities end, as Quarterback A won his game, while Quarterback B did not.
But it's eerie, right?
Another difference: Coach Bronco Mendenhall announced Riley Nelson would start the next game after his heroics against Utah State last fall, while the same Coach Mendenhall has announced Riley Nelson, this time the disgraced starter, will start the next game again over freshman backup Taysom Hill.
Why? I can explain it only by assuming Bronco loves Riley's heart and grit, which are admirable.
But if heart and grit were all you needed to be a college football star, Rudy would be a Heisman winner.
[Riley is] enough to beat bad teams, will never, ever be the reason BYU beat a great team, or even a very good team. His throwing ability has improved this season from last, but he still has low arm strength and extremely questionable decision-making skills.
Not much has changed, sadly. There are rumors that he has a back injury, but even healthy, Nelson was never the guy to lead BYU to the next level.
I liked what I saw from Taysom. I'd love to see his passing improve, but he's a better runner than Nelson has ever been. He's quicker, faster and stronger, and he has better ability to make guys miss. None of his completed passes were particularly pretty, but he had some zip on the ball, and I think his misses can be corrected.
His touchdown run, where he dragged three defenders into the endzone? A thing of beauty.
In other news, Bronco's decision to go for a two-point conversion last night has drawn a lot of ire from fans.
And in the context of trying to win the game, they are 100 percent right.
But in the context of the long-term future of BYU? Not as much.
Consider this scenario. You have a freshman quarterback who has seen limited time on the field this season. He has just engineered a potentially game-winning drive on the road, against a good defensive team.
You tell Tayom, "Son, go out there and win us this game. You have one play to determine success or failure; go succeed."
And you sit back and watch.
Will he implode under the pressure? Will he panic?
Or will he run right, keeping his eyes on the endzone while forcing defenders to account for his ability to scramble, and throw a dart to an open BYU receiver?
Sure, a Bronco linebacker made a super-impressive play to stretch out and tip that pass, but the play was solid.
The play showed me what I want to know about Hill. Is he afraid of the big moment? No sir. Will he wilt under pressure? Nope. If he can develop the passing ability to keep defenses from keying in on his running, he'll be a good one at BYU.
And learning that meant more to me than getting a meaningless win at Boise State on a Thursday night in September.
So please, Bronco. Start Taysom next week. Start him every game this season. You may lose some games you might have won with Riley. It doesn't matter. This season is the Poinsettia Bowl, or worse, for this Cougar team. Give Hill the time and reps he needs to be a special player in 2013. Give him the experience to be ready when Texas and Utah and Notre Dame come to Provo next fall.
Help 2013 be the best season it can be by sacrificing your love for Riley Nelson.
Is it really a rivalry when one team has only won the game three times in the last 11 years?
BYU came out scared and flat, as they always do versus Utah, and it hurt them a lot. By the time they pulled it together, it was too late, and not even the MUSS gifting the Cougars a relatively easy field goal to tie as time expired was enough.
As I've written time and time before, Riley Nelson is fool's gold. He will never been the kind of quarterback to destroy good defenses. Even in his senior season, with almost two full years of starting at the position, he can't make more than a handful of throws consistently. He can't read defenses. His running okay, I guess, but not something opposing defensive coordinators fear.
Give the reins to Taysom. This season is a loss, anyway. He may turn out to be another bust like Heaps (who I still believe can be great at Kansas), but Riley is the bus to Nowheresville. I made the same argument in favor of Heaps last season, and it holds true this season. Give Hill a lot of reps in the games against Boise State, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame. Give him starts against Idaho and San Jose State. The more real-world time he gets on the field this season, the better he'll be in years 2, 3 and 4. And if he's terrible, I'd at least like to know now.
The winner of our Guess the Score contest is Matt Bat Head, who eerily predicted
"24-21 BYU-Sorenson comes back and kicks a 60 yard field goal as time expires. Hoffman goes for 85 yards."
The last play of the game certainly was a field goal, and the final score was indeed 24-21.
BYU is down four to Utah State with under two minutes to go, backed up nearly to their own endzone. Jake Heaps has struggled mightily against the Aggies tonight, leading to Bronco and Doman to decide to bench Heaps and bring in Riley Nelson to play against his old team.
Riley manages to bring the Cougars 99 yards for the game-winning touchdown, bedlam ensues, and my brother Seth and I look at each other with worried looks on our faces.
We knew one thing: Nelson is fool's gold.
Good enough to beat bad teams, will never, ever be the reason BYU beat a great team, or even a very good team. His throwing ability has improved this season from last, but he still has low arm strength and extremely questionable decision-making skills.
Heaps has not been much better this season, and definitely deserved to be benched. But for the long term, Heaps is the answer.
As evidenced last week, Lark is not going to take this team anywhere, and if he gets playing time over Munns, Munns has got to be even worse.
What a bad quarterback situation we have in 2011.
Then Riley broke a rib against the mighty Vandals and it looks like it's Heaps' show the rest of the way. He looked fine against Idaho, but let's be honest; it's Idaho.
Tonight's game against New Mexico State is actually a bit intriguing. This may be BYU's closest match in an opponent since that Aggie game in September. While these Aggies are only 4-6, they can put up points. They dropped 28 on Minnesota (in a win), 42 on New Mexico and 48 on Fresno State. While none of those may be good teams, it still shows these guys can get the ball in the endzone, and seem to be improving over time.
New Mexico State seems like a passing team, with 23 of their touchdowns coming through the air, but they can also run, with 14 of their scores coming on the ground. I worry most about BYU's pass defense, and firmly believe that if I were an opposing offensive coordinator with a quarterback worth a darn I'd pass 95% of the time against this Cougar team. Idaho, unfortunately, does not have a quarterback worth a darn, and you saw the results.
So on a snowy night in Provo, it's going to come down to whether or not the Aggies can pass well enough to score versus BYU, and whether Heaps can overcome his mental issues.
In trying to think of a prediction for this game, I realized I'm honestly unsure of what to expect, which is kind of nice after a few weeks of pre-determined outcomes.
Utah State at BYU! 6:00 p.m. at LaVell Edwards Stadium! Be there!
A grudge match of epic proportions. Utah state beat BYU down handily last year, 31-16, and it really wasn't even that close. They were up 24-3 at the half and shut the offense down, letting their running backs run the clock out, and they ended up averaging 4.1 yards a carry as a team for the game.
In other words, BYU was outclassed big time.
I'd like to say I expect the Cougars to destroy the Aggies, but the odds of that are bad. Utah State is averaging 42 point a game, and while a lot of those came against a bad Weber State team and a really bad Colorado State team, it still shows these guys can move the ball. Quarterback Chuckie Keaton is averaging 4.3 yards a carry and completing 67% of his passes. Running back Robert Turbin is getting 5.7 yards a pop and running for 121 yards a game.
In short, the defense will be tested this week.
The Aggie defense, on the other hand, is not as impressive. Giving up 34 points to the Rams? Ouch. Here's hoping Heaps and company can get on track for the first time this season. Might we see THREE offensive touchdowns tonight? We can only hope.
I expect another exciting game thanks to a poor offensive showing, culminating in a closer-than-we'd-like win over the Aggies, 24-21.
Finally, I have decided to award the Amazon.com gift card to Steven Johnson, who was the only person to predict Utah would beat BYU in the comments of the original post. The card is on its way, Steven, and I hope it will bring you joy as you think about how you picked against your beloved team.
The Friday night home game against the UCF Knights turned out to be a pretty good one. After the Knights steamrolled BYU's defense on their first drive, I was worried this would be a rout, but then the defense showed up, and despite a few miscues, played pretty well the rest of the night.
Thank goodness for Hoffman's returned kickoff for a touchdown, or this game could have turned out very differently, and Heaps' bad performance would have gotten a lot more scrutiny.
But here's the deal: Heaps plays better, BYU wins 40-17, and I'm yawning in the fourth quarter.
As it was, it was pretty much down to the wire, as UCF had the ball with over a minute to go with the chance to tie it. My brother Josh mentioned it was an exciting game more than once.
So maybe this year won't be a season of a few tough games and mostly cupcakes. I expect the game against Utah State this Friday to be a tough win, if not an outright loss, and who knows if Jake's errant passes will keep Idaho State, San Jose State and Idaho (yes, BYU plays both bad Idaho teams) in the game longer than they should be?
The home schedule may turn out to be far better than everyone expected when it was announced.
Other random thoughts from Friday:
1. Kyle Van Noy is a beast. The play where he ran down UCF's quarterback from about 15 yards out was a thing of beauty. You can tell the QB is thinking he just bought some time to find a receiver by rolling out, and then KVN is there in about .3 seconds for the sack. Here's the play:
Out of nowhere.
2. BYU's defenders sure are injuring a lot of opponents this season. Several running backs, a few wide receivers, and quarterbacks have been taken out more than once after getting hit by a linebacker or safety. While I like the intensity, I think I'd take a little less oomph if it meant fewer blown coverages and missed tackles. Wrap up first, blow up second.
3. The offense still can't score. They had one long drive for a touchdown Friday, and their other TD came after getting a very short field thanks to a muffed punt reception (shades of the Utah game).
4. Riley Stephenson had the game of his life. I've never seen him absolutely boom so many punts in one game before, and winning the field position battle was a major reason for BYU's win.
5. On that vein, Justin Sorenson was great. Three out of four kickoffs were downed in the end zone, and the one that was returned only made it out to the 16 or so. He was also nails on his one field goal. I hope they let him try one from 50 yards plus; I think he can get it.
6. UCF's running backs were great. Big, strong, tough to take down, kept moving their legs. One day BYU will get a back like that. Juice and DiLuigi are nice and all, but not really starting talent for a Top-25 team (not that BYU is a Top-25 team).
7. Jake was bad. Under 50% completion percentage, one pick (not exactly his fault, but it was not a great throw) and one near pick (see previous parenthetical comment) and missing on third down throws all night. His overthrow of a streaking Jacobsen let the entire stadium down. Kid has all the tools, and I hope he can put it together, but how many games is he going to be subpar?
8. The offensive line has issues. Their run blocking was atrocious most of the game, and they get blown up by opposing defensive lines enough that Jake feels like he's going to get killed all the time. Accurate or not, it's not good for your quarterback to be that jumpy. I know there are injuries, but it seems the last three years we've heard how amazing the O-line will be, and then they're fat, slow and not particularly able to shove people out of the way. Something big needs to change here.
Finally, something something Big 12 invite something. Cougarboard's been all abuzz about some rumored interest the Big 12 has in inviting BYU to the conference, but you know my take on non-news: I hate it. I'll talk about an event once an event has happened, not before. Call me crazy, but I enjoy discussing facts rather than freaking out over potential future happenings.
Utah State preview later this week. In short, the Aggies are schizophrenic.
I'm a graduate from BYU-Idaho with a degree in Communications with a print journalism emphasis. I currently work as a test engineer for a software company. I've been married for seven years and have three kids.
