Elimination Thursday report

Things certainly felt... final last night in the National Basketball Association.

1. Dallas beat the Blazers 103-96, in Portland, to win the series 4-2. My original prediction had Portland winning in 7 games, as I assumed Dallas would get good numbers from Dirk and not much else. Turns out, Jason Terry scored 22 and Marion contributed 16 points on Thursday, two players I didn't expect that much from. Meanwhile, Wallace, Aldridge and Matthews had good games, but the team as a whole only made 5 of their 21 3-point attempts, and while their percentages of 44% from the field and 80% from the line aren't terrible, especially for the playoffs, they let the Mavs shoot 50% from the line and Dallas made 86% of their freebies.

Looking at the series stats, Portland didn't play poorly, Dallas just played better. Close series, and the horses came out on top. Sometimes that's the way it falls. And for Dallas to close it out on the road is kind of impressive. I had them getting smoked by the Lakers in the next round, but now I kind of feel like they can win a game or two.

2. The Lakers beat up on the Hornets last night, in New Orleans, 98-80. Paul submitted a nearly superheroic line of 10 points, 11 assists and 8 rebounds, but he needed a real superheroic performance to get the win. Poor guy got very little help in this series; Trevor Ariza shot 41%, Marco Bellinelli was 39%, Jarrett Jack shot 35% and Paul's lone bright spot was Carl Landry's 45%.

Anyway, LA is huge and a matchup nightmare for anyone. Sorry, Hornets. Get some better pieces around Chris Paul.6%

3. Atlanta finished off the Magic 84-81, to win the series 4-2. Another outcome I failed to predict, and what's funny is I gave a lot of credit to the Hawks... I just assumed Dwight would go crazy and his shooters would be average. Instead, Redick hit 35% of his shots (6% from deep!), Jason Richardson was a 35% shooter as well and Turkoglu hit 30% of his looks (23% from deep). As a team they hit 26% of their 3-pointers, while letting the Hawks hit 36% of theirs, including Crawford's blistering 45%.

Tough luck, Orlando. Better luck next year.

In other news, Real Salt Lake got beat 1-0 by Monterrey (a club team from Mexico) in Sandy, Utah. If Real could have scored a single goal, they would represent North America in the World Club Championships or something, which would have been cool and maybe I would have become more interested in soccer. As it was, they got shut out, at home (did I mention that a tie would have been as good as a win? Silly soccer), and went home losers. Tough break for those who hope American soccer can take off.

The Jazz are fine

It seems a lot of the Jazz talk on the radio this offseason has been doom-and-gloom type stuff. Lots of complaining about losing Deron, about the team's record over the last half of the season and a longing for the good ol' days when the Jazz were in the Western Conference Finals.

My response? That's ridiculous. It's no secret I was tired of the Deron/Boozer/Okur trifecta as early as 2008. That nucleus was good for 50 wins and absolutely no chance at an NBA championship. The team's ceiling had been hit. Everything from that point to the Deron trade was just treading water.

The Jazz team right now is not good enough to win a championship either, but the difference is, they are far from reaching their ceiling.

For starters, hey, the Jazz actually ended up with Derrick Favors! He's 6-10 and 246 lbs. at 19 years old. Kid works hard, as evidenced by how built he is. Had 17 points and 8 boards against Tim Duncan (okay, the ghost of Tim Duncan) and the Spurs earlier this month. He shot 51.7% from the field this season and 59% from the free throw line. He averaged 8 points and 5 boards with a block for the Jazz, all while playing less than 20 minutes a game.

In short, I think this kid is going to be a monster on both ends of the floor. Not just an offensive player, like Boozer. Not just a defensive player, like Fes (to whatever extent he is a defensive player). A complete big man, the likes Utah has not seen since Karl left for L.A. retired.

Losing Deron hurts, but I think getting Harris and Favors (along with some draft picks) was more than a fair trade at this point. Harris is a very serviceable point guard, and I don't see him as a weak spot for the Jazz at all. The blossoming of Hayward into a good-maybe great? guard has been surprising, but if continues on his upward trajectory he might turn into the slashing/shooting guy on the wing Utah's been needing for decades.

Slap on a good-to-great center in Jefferson and Millsap as a 6th man/small forward and that's a good starting five. Maybe they'll be as good as the 2008 Jazz team, maybe they'll be worse in the end. But maybe they'll be better, and that's what I'm focusing on.

I do wish this draft were better, as it appears to be worst possible time to get lottery picks in the 6 AND 12 spots. That said, there are always diamonds in the rough, and we don't know for sure who will pan out and who won't.

In addition, the Jazz have tons of cap space to work with, thanks to Andrei's $17.8 million contract finally expiring.

And I may be a BYU homer, but I'd be fine with the Jazz picking Jimmer at 6. If he can score 50 points in college when being double teamed, he can score 10-15 in the NBA when he'll be single covered at best. And if he's playing with two legit low-post options in Favors and Jefferson? Kick it out to the Jimmer and start running the other way, because he'll hit at least 50% from deep when he's wide open.

To sum up, if I can't root for a team that is dominant (2006 BYU, 1996 Jazz), I'd rather cheer for a team with the potential to get there than one with no shot at it.

The Jazz are fine.

BYU basketball is popular

In case that's hard to read, it's a chart of the highest-rated sports broadcasts on cable over the last month. Up top? BYU vs. Florida in the Sweet 16. Not bad. People love the Jimmer.

Of course, it ended up being one of the worst games of his career, but still.

Here are the highlights.

Weekend NBA updatery

1. Sorry, Denver, but your scrappy "no real star, who you gonna guard?" offensive just isn't enough to make it past the Thunder. Durant and Westbrook didn't have the best games Saturday, and in fact, OK City went over 6 minutes of game time without scoring at one point and the Zombie Sonics still won. J.R. Smith was not fouled on the final shot... it was amazing defense from Harden and Smith should have passed it once it was clear he wasn't getting anything close to a good look. Thunder up 3-0.

Prognosis: goodbye Nuggets.

2. The Celtics completed a sweep of the Knicks Sunday. I would feel sorry for the fans in New York, but most of them are also Yankees fans, so whatever. Not all that surprised the pairing of Amare and Carmelo didn't exactly take off, but you'd have thought they could at least win one game. The Knicks as a whole might have had a chance to win some games if they'd played some defense, at least. Boston spent most of the second half of the season struggling to score on anyone, but Ray Allen shot 65% from deep against them on the series and Pierce was at 50%. Add in Rondo's freakish triple double of 15 points, 11 rebounds and 20 assists in Game 4 and you have a pretty big bag of defensive fail.

From Basketbawful:

[Rondo joined] Magic Johnson, Jason Kidd, Larry Bird, Wilt Chamberlain, Oscar Robertson and LeBron James as the only players in NBA history to record six career playoff triple doubles.

A Mike D'Antoni leading a team known for poor defense? Whodathunk? Boston wins 4-0. Prognosis: the Celtics need to look this good against a team that cares about the other end of the floor before I'll take them seriously.

3. Portland beat the Mavs Saturday behind Brandon Roy's 18 fourth-quarter points. Dallas shot only 40% as a team, and while Portland only made 42% of their looks, Nowtizki's 20 points weren't enough. Like I said, both teams have their flaws, and it's going to be a close series. Tied 2-2.

Prognosis: Dallas wins.

4. The Sixers beat the Heat Sunday to extend the series at least one more game. In a nutshell, Wade and LeBron had great games and no one else showed up for Miami. Bosh: 5-12 and 5 rebounds. Bibby: 0-6. Chalmers: 3-9. Jones 1-3. Just an ugly offensive showing for the Heat's role players. The Sixers weren't exactly on fire themselves, but rookie Evan Turner scored 17 on 7-13 shooting to help Elton Brand's 15 points, and they got it done. Heat up 3-1.

Prognosis: good job showing some life, Philly, but it's not enough in the long run.

5. Similar story for the Magic and Hawks. Dwight continues tearing it up (29 points, 17 rebounds and 2 blocks in Game 4) but his supporting cast is terrible. Turkoglu shot 2-12, including a last-minute 3 attempt at the end of the game. Jameer Nelson was 3-12 and Redick shot 0-6. In fairness, the ghost of Gilbert Arenas did score 20 points on 9-18 shooting, but if not for this unexpected good night from him, the loss would have been much worse than three points. Apparently the strategy of "get a dominant big man and surround him with shooters" doesn't work if your shooters can't shoot. The Hawks had four guys in double figures, including the red-hot Jamal Crawford, who is averaging 24 ppg and 47% shooting from deep for the series. Atlanta leads 3-1.

Prognosis: Atlanta is scrappy.

6. Derrick Rose's bad shooting numbers finally caught up to him as the Pacers beat the Bulls 89-84 Saturday. Rose shot 6-22 from the field, bringing his series average to 29 ppg on 35% shooting overall and a blistering 17% mark from deep. He was outscored by Deng, Boozer and Noah, while taking several more shots. Rose himself was 1-9 from deep... someone needs to tell this kid to stop jacking them from behind the line. You don't see Rajon Rondo doing that, do you? He knows his limitations and doesn't hurt his team by shooting from range. Anyway, Hibbert and Granger both had double-doubles in the close win. Chicago leads 3-1.

Prognosis: it'd take a miracle for Indiana to win, especially considering Mr. Stern has no intention of his league MVP getting ousted in the first round. Sorry, Hoosiers.

7. Memphis punked the Spurs for the second time in three games Saturday behind Zach Randolph's 3-pointer with less than a minute left to put Memphis up four. Here's how improbable that shot was: Zach was 8-21 on the night and had only hit 8 of his 43 three-point attempts on the season. Duncan afterwards said he didn't think Randolph would shoot it from there, and he had every reason to think that, but sometimes the basketball gods smile on otherwise poor shooters. Ginobili and Parker combined to shoot 10-24 from the field and Duncan only scored 13 points on 11 shots. Pau's little brother contributed an efficient 17 and 9 in the win. Memphis up 2-1.

Prognosis: San Antonio is old, but they'll figure it out.

8. And the cherry on top of a good weekend in NBA basketball: Kobe Byrant shoots 5-18 and spends the night yelling at his teammates in a classic Lakers loss to the Hornets. Chris Paul was brilliant, racking up a triple double line of 27 points, 13 rebounds and 15 assists and flat out destroying anyone who tried to guard him. He got good help from Trevor Ariza, Carl Landry and Aaron Gray, as the team shot a relatively blistering 44% from the field. The Lakers had five guys in double digits, but Gasol only pulled down 4 boards and Odom was 1-7 from the field. Series tied.

Prognosis: CP3 can't keep it up forever, but look out for the Thunder, Laker fans.

Some statistical analysis

My buddy Stu took some time to compile the average years played in the NBA for each team in the league. I told him if he sent me the data I'd blog it, so here I am.

To begin, here are the numbers:

Sacramento: 2.57 24-58

Minnesota: 2.69 17-65

Washington: 2.80 23-59

Toronto: 3.06 22-60

LaC: 3.21 32-50

Houston 3.26 43-49

Golden State: 3.5 36-46

Portland: 3.571 48-34

Cleveland 3.6 19-63

OK City 3.714 55-27

Memphis: 3.66 46-36

New Jersey: 3.73 24-58

New Orleans: 4.06 46-36

Indiana: 4.13 37-45

San Antonio: 4.73 61-21

Denver 4.78 50-32

Utah 4.9 39-43

NY: 5.0 42-40

Philadelphia: 5.06 41-41

Phoenix: 5.21 40-42

Detroit: 5.26 30-52

Charlotte: 5.40 34-48

Milwaukee: 5.42 35-47

Chicago 5.46 62-20

Atlanta 5.714 44-38

Orlando: 5.923 52-30

Dallas 7.8 57-25

Boston: 8.26 56-26

Miami: 8.26 58-24

LAL 8.5 57-25

Boy that is ugly. Maybe if I were better with Excel I could manage to make it look prettier.

Anyway, the last stats class I took was my senior year of high school, so let's see what I can do.

For starters, the top seven teams are in the playoffs. The bottom seven teams are out of the playoffs. Milwaukee has the honor of being the oldest team in the NBA to not make the post season, while the Blazers are the youngest.

Two jumps up from Portland we have the Thunder, who are not only super young, but also a real threat to win the West. Meanwhile, the Pistons, Bobcats and Suns struggled mightily while being older than most teams in the league.

Obvious outliers (oooh a fancy stats term):

-Houston because they are so young but still almost managed to sneak into the playoffs.

-Portland for being so young and so good.

-OK City for the same reason as Portland, only moreso.
-San Antonio for winning 61 games while having the average experience of squads like the Pacers and Nuggets. I had no idea Duncan, Parker and Ginobili were surrounded by such relative newcomers.

-Detroit for having as much experience as the Knicks and Jazz but winning only 30 games total. They've got three guys with over 11 years of playing time and can't even make the playoffs. Of course, who can blame them when these three guys are Ben Wallace, Tracy McGrady and Richard Hamilton?

What does this show? Well, my poor methodology displays the fact that unless you get super lucky in the draft and end up with really young studs like Oklahoma City, having experience on your team definitely helps you reach the top of the NBA standings.

Unless it doesn't. Then you probably made some bad signings somewhere along the way.

Feel free to forward this invaluable information to and NBA GM's you know.

And if any of you are stat heads, feel free to enlighten me to hidden nuggets of information I may have missed. I can offer temporary, limited fame!

NBA ramblings

-So the Heat smacked the Sixers around for a while last night, and when all was said and done they led the series 2-0. Philly shot 34% for the game, despite a decent night from Evan Turner. If the Heat win it all this season, it's going to be on their defense, and their defense looked good here.

-Also last night, the Bulls toyed around with Indiana some more and ripped their hearts out for the second time in two games. Derrick Rose continued his ways of shooting poorly from the field and earning a ton of trips to the free throw line. Boozer showed up, scoring 17 points and pulling down 16 boards. Granger led an amazingly balanced effort in scoring from the Pacers, as nine players scored at least 6 points, and one more scored 5. If nothing else, this series might give Indiana fans some hope for next season.

The Rose thing is interesting. Normally I hate it when a player scores 25+ on 40% shooting, because hey, if the entire team shot that poorly, they'd definitely lose, right? Scoring a lot in an inefficient manner isn't that impressive. But with Rose, his free throw attempts and conversion rate are so high it almost offsets it. Would I like to see him hit more of his shots? Yeah. But if he keeps forcing people to foul him, and then keeps making 12-13 from the stripe like he did on Monday, I'm willing to overlook the field goal percentage mark a little.

-The NBA said "Oh yeah, that was totally offensive interference on Kendrick Perkins that one time."

Had the officials whistled Perkins for an illegal touch, the Nuggets would have gotten possession with a one-point lead and just over a minute remaining in regulation; instead, the Thunder took a one-point advantage and held on for a 107-103 win to take a 1-0 lead in the best-of-seven first-round series.

Ouch. That said, this was one bad call, one moment in the game that didn't go Denver's way. The night was made up of thousands of moments, and if any of them had gone differently, maybe that offensive interference call wouldn't have even mattered. If there were three, four, five egregiously bad calls, then you can complain, Nuggets. But one call? Play better for the first three quarters and make the score late so lopsided in your favor that bad calls don't even matter. Good luck in Game 2.

-Dwight Howard won his third Defensive Player of the Year award in a row. As Ball Don't Lie wrote,

...you should probably be up for putting Dwight Howard's grinning mug up on Mt. Rushmore for leading this group of sieves to the third-best defense in the NBA in 2010-11.

Spot on. That the Magic were that effective on defense with Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick, Gilbert Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson covering the perimeter, then Dwight was simply transcendent this season.

Here's hoping he gets some help in Game 2 against the Hawks tonight.

Supplemental playoff draft idea

Do you wish you could watch Blake Griffin in this year's playoffs? Miss seeing Deron Williams, Stephen Curry or Brook Lopez? I have an idea on how to improve the quality of the playoffs and make everyone happy.

In short, the NBA should institutes a supplemental playoff draft.

After the regular season ends, each playoff team can draft one player from a non-playoff team to join their squad for the playoffs. The draft order is determined by final regular-season record, which means the Bulls would choose last and the Pacers would choose first this year.

So say the Pacers take Blake. They have him for every game until they get eliminated. At that point, everyone goes home and Griffin is a Clipper again next fall.

Pros

1. Fans of non-playoff teams have a reason to watch. Any Clipper fans who don't normally care about the playoffs are now watching the Pacers play, increasing TV ratings and boosting revenue across the board. The same goes for fans in New Jersey, San Francisco, Houston and many other markets.

2. Players on bad teams get valuable playoff experience. Blake Griffin plays against the Bulls, gets to understand the intensity of the playoff experience, and returns that much more valuable for the Clippers. When the Clips finally manage to reach the playoffs themselves, they have a battle-hardened Griffin ready to lead them... he knows exactly what to expect and doesn't need to spend a couple games figuring things out.

3. In today's NBA, there are no 70-win Bulls teams. There are no Showtime Lakers or Bird/McHale/Parrish Celtics. Teams in the past were way more loaded than they are today (mostly thanks to league expansion), and even the Lakers, Spurs and Bulls have holes they wouldn't mind filling. Even if you're getting the 16th-best player of those not in the playoffs, that's awesome.

Here's a non-scientific list of the best 16 players not in the playoffs (according to the Yahoo! fantasy rankings in my league this season).

1. Stephen Curry

2. Monta Ellis

3. Al Jefferson

4. Dorell Wright

5. Kevin Martin

6. Eric Gordon

7. Channing Frye

8. Steve Nash

9. David Lee

10. Andrei Kirilenko

11. Brook Lopez

12. Carlos Delfino

13. Luke Ridnour

14. Andray Blatche

15. Brandon Jennings

16. Javale McGee

Somehow Blake doesn't rate on this system, which is ridiculous, but you get the idea.

The Bulls add Javale McGee while the Pacers get to choose from Griffin, Curry, Ellis or Jefferson. Meanwhile the Spurs can add Andray Blatche and the Nuggets can grab David Lee. Not a bad setup, in my opinion. No one is stuck with a scrub, and if a team doesn't want to risk ruining their team's chemistry, they can just pass.

Potential Cons

1. Owners might not want their best players risking injury to help another team, similar to how Mark Cuban has complained about Dirk playing for Germany in the Olympics and other international tournaments.

To offset this, I would have the drafting team pay one or two million dollars to the non-playoff team in exchange for rights to the player. Maybe even a second-round draft pick on top of cash considerations. And the owner's guy gets the playoff experience needed to benefit his team next season.

2. Players might not want to assist another team's effort to win a championship. In that case they can remove themselves from the draft, though in order to offset this reluctance they'd also be paid handsomely for their time and effort. In addition, they may end up getting historical credit for helping another team win a championship, as in "Kevin Love assisted the Denver Nuggets in winning three championships while part of the Minnesota Timberwolves." And as previously mentioned, they get playoff experience... a vastly important factor if you'd like to win one for your team one day.

They also get the added benefit of other teams watching them in the playoffs. If Curry tears it up against the Lakers and helps the Nuggets get to the conference finals, you don't think his value goes up? His next contract is going to be larger than it would be if he were just part of the perpetually non-contending Warriors.

And to top it all off, you know David Stern loves this idea. It increases TV revenues, gets his young stars more exposure, and creates more even playoff matchups (though that's not much of an issue this year).

I think this idea would work. Your take?