1. Derrick Rose is the real deal. After watching him in college, I saw him as a shooting guard with great finishing skills and not much range. However, as a rookie on a fairly bad team, he's averaging 19 points, six assists, and four rebounds a game. And he's getting better; he has had a few 10-assist games lately, and has displayed a pretty nice jumper. I was way off base about him. 15 and 8 tonight with two steals.
2. I was also wrong about Michael Beasley. While he's not exactly dominating, I figured he was a bit too small to play the 4 well. Instead, he's averaging 14.5 points and five rebounds a game in 28 minutes a game. I can only imagine he'll improve as he gets more experience.
3. I was wrong about Paul Millsap. In debating whether he could take over for Boozer as the starting power forward, I said he'd probably average 17 and 8 or so... but since Boozer went out with his hamstring, Paul is racking up around 20 and 10 in eight games started. Tonight he had 16 points, 11 boards, three steals, and two blocks before picking up his fourth foul early in the third against Phoenix. Got slapped with his fifth soon after entering the game in the fourth, and finished with 20 points and 12 boards.
There are more examples, but in general, I'm being proved terrible at judging talent. And honestly, that doesn't bother me too much. It means the quality of the league will be better over the next decade or so.