Western Conference playoff predictions

I don't have quite as many thoughts about the matchups in the West, and it's late, so this post will be a bit shorter than my one from earlier today.

Memphis-San Antonio

I know what you're thinking. "The Grizzlies? In the playoffs? Against the Spurs? I'll get my broom." And yes, while the Duncan\Ginobili\Parker trio has been winning championships since what seems like the Reagan presidency, these are not the 2003 Spurs, and the Grizzlies are better than you think.

Zach Randolph had a monster season for Memphis, averaging 20 and 12 on 50% shooting and often pulling down upwards of 20 rebounds in one night. Sure, he's crazy, but at least lately, he's been good crazy. Put him next to Pau's little brother and you have a formidable front court, maybe enough to contain Timmy.

If Rudy Gay were healthy (out for the entire playoffs with a shoulder injury) I may give even pick the Grizzlies with some confidence, but as it is, San Antonio's experience and coaching is just too much. Maybe next year, Grizz.

Spurs in 5.

New Orleans-Los Angeles (Lakers)

This matchup is just sad. Chris Paul is working on what I have heard are knees completely devoid of cartilage, and his best teammate, David West, is done for the year. Outside of these two, no one else scored more than 11 points per game this season, and I guess Emeka Okafor is their second banana for the series. Yikes.

Meanwhile, L.A. has looked disinterested more than not over the last few weeks, losing to the Jazz, among other terrible squads. That said, Odom has been lights out since marrying that Kardashian robot, averaging 14 and 9 on 53% shooting, and Pau is Pau. If Bynum can be healthy, it's tough for anyone to beat these guys, let alone a team led by a crippled point guard.

The only way I see L.A. dropping even a single game is if Kobe goes into Bad Kobe mode and shoots 40 shots at a 23% clip. Not going to happen; he only goes into that mode when he's worried, and the Hornets won't put up enough of a fight to rattle him.

Lakers in 4.

Portland-Dallas

An interesting series, if only because both teams have received a lot of hype in the past, and then came crashing down to earth. The Mavs haven't been the same team since losing to the Heat in the Finals in 2006, and the Blazers have finally succumbed to the hex put on them by that witch, and injuries to just about every player on that team = bad times.

Dirk is Dirk, and the 7-foot shooting guard submitted another great season, scoring 23 points per game on 51/40/90 percentages while pulling down 7 rebounds a night. That said, he's lacking a Robin to his Batman. Jason Terry and Caron Butler are good players, but not suited to carry more of a scoring load than they already do. Then you have the broken shell of Shawn Marion (12 points and 6 boards a game) and Tyson Chandler, who's a double-double machine when healthy.

Portland has some good pieces: LaMarcus Aldridge turned in the best season of his career, but before the Gerald Wallace trade, no one else on the roster was especially impressive. Brandon Roy's knees are gone. Wesley Matthews is good, but he's not the key to winning a championship. Wallace has been decidedly Gerald Wallacey for the Blazers, averaging two blocks, two steals and seven rebounds per game on top of 15 points. In addition, he's the exact type of defender that has been able to slow Dirk down in the past.

In short, this is a tossup. Dallas has homecourt, which I imagine will be a big advantage, but not enough of one to affect the final outcome.

Blazers in 7.

Oklahoma City-Denver

To start, the Thunder are my pick to beat the Lakers in the playoffs this season. They almost did it in 2010 without any kind of defensive post presence, and with Perkins, I see them pulling it off. But to get there, they have to get past a surprisingly lively Denver team.

The Nuggets lost both Carmelo and Chauncey Billups in February, but managed to finish the season winning 18 of their last 25 games. Looking at the roster, this team is filled with great role players, but the closest thing they have to a star is Nene. That said, who is Oklahoma City going to guard? Gallinari is a scorer, Afflalo is a waterbug, Wilson Chandler was a fan favorite in New York and J.R. Smith can get hot at any time. There's nobody to key on.

Meanwhile, the Thunder are humming. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have proven themselves to be the best backcourt in basketball, and with the added strength of Perkins in the middle and a freed Ibaka roaming around creating havoc, this is a well-built squad.

It should be an entertaining series, but in the end, OK City's star power is too much for the Ewing Theory Nuggets to overcome.

Thunder in 5.

Eastern Conference playoff predictions

My NBA watching this season was a complete disaster.

After the wife and I decided to get rid of our cable, I decided the only things I'd really miss, and couldn't get online free somewhere, were the NBA and NCAA football.

Turns out there wasn't anything I could do about the football side of my sports withdrawal, but the NBA does offer a League Pass option for broadband users. After researching my options within the program, I chose a package that let me pick eight teams to watch (all home and away games, unless televised).

I chose Golden State, the Clippers, Miami, the Knicks, Portland, Oklahoma City, Chicago and Boston.

In retrospect, I think I picked well from an entertainment perspective.

Anyway, this plan cost around $100, which I felt was a reasonable price for an entire season of watching Blake Griffin and LeBron James do their thing. For the first few weeks, everything was great. The picture quality was good, and I could stream the games to my TV if I didn't feel like sitting at my desk to watch Kevin Durrant score 43.

Then we changed ISP's to a cheaper, wireless option. It saved us around $25 a month, and the initial download speeds we were getting were great. For about a day.

Then everything went to pot.

From the 3.2 megabit download speed I was enjoying, it dropped to around 40 to 50kb/sec, utterly unsuitable for streaming media like Youtube, Netflix and... the NBA League Pass.

I figured it was just a temporary problem, but after two days of this, I called my ISP and was told they were throttling my connection because we used streaming media.

Yeah, apparently this cheap, 3.2 megabit package was only for people who check their e-mail and play Sudoku online. Stream anything for a period of time and they throttle you. Go over your 5GB monthly download cap, they throttle you.

I actually spoke with the tech who signed us up for the service initially, and he had the gall to tell me he asked what we use the internet for, and I said nothing about streaming. Dude, ever since we got rid of cable, internet streaming is 70% of what we do with our connection! You never asked me that question, and if you had, I would have told you we use Netflix and Hulu almost every day.

Anyway, Netflix and Hulu are generally able to work okay with extensive and time consuming buffering, but the NBA League Pass just can't do it, seeing as to how it's a live stream and all.

Bad times.

Bottom line, I watched almost no NBA over the last few months of the season. I faithfully read the blogs, which is nice, but I haven't seen anyone play an entire game, and that stinks.

But since when has a lack of knowledge and insight stopped me from offering my opinions before?

The good news is that I'll be watching a ton of playoff basketball over the next six weeks, thanks to making some arrangements. Expect a lot of blogging on the National Basketball Association through early June.

Without further ado I give you my 2011 NBA Playoff Predictions, Eastern Conference Style!

Video courtesy The Two Man Game via Ball Don't Lie

Chicago-Indiana

Remember waaay back in 2008 when I wrote David Stern had rigged the draft to get Chicago the #1 pick and thereby restore the Bulls to their rightful place as NBA Royalty alongside Boston and L.A.?

That plan certainly worked.

Anyway, the Bulls are a great team, mostly defensively. Second best squad in the league at giving up points, at just over 91 a game. As we've learned, this trait is hugely important in the playoffs, when things slow down and getting that one stop at the end of the game can be the difference between winning a championship and going home a loser.

It's weird to think Boozer is on this defensive juggernaut, but as I've argued extensively in the past, put him next to a defensive center/team and his defensive liabilities, which are many, aren't as much of a problem anymore. The Jazz playing him with Okur was a disaster of epic proportions. The Bulls playing him with Noah, a defensive player if there ever was one, equals success.

The Pacers are an interesting bunch. Danny Granger is a poor man's Kobe, Roy Hibbert was tearing it up for a while there and then cooled off a whole bunch and they have two identical moderately useful white forwards in Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts.

I can see the Pacers keeping it close in two or three games, but overall they just don't have the talent or coaching to beat Chicago.

Bulls in 5. Derrick Rose gets more ammo for his (mostly deserving) MVP campaign.

Miami-Philadelphia

Ah, the Heat. Target of billions of pounds of internet vitriol over the last nine months. Were Wade, James and Bosh overly cocky last summer? Definitely. Was expecting the team to win 70 games unreasonable? Maybe, maybe not. Losing Haslem was a giant blow, and the same goes for Mike Miller. Give them a defensive specialist down low and a guy who can hit wide-open 3's and the LeChyane Washames group can win a lot.

But even if these three have to do it all themselves, there's no better place to make it work than the playoffs. Grind it out games, where one guy who can get to the hoop at will is invaluable... and Miami has two.

The Sixers had a roller coaster of a year. Started terribly, worked their tails off to get into a decent playoff spot, then tanked the last few games to earn a date with Miami. I guess when Andre Iguodala is your best player, that's about the best you can do. Sorry, Philadelphia.

Heat in 5.

Orlando-Atlanta

Hooray for Dwight Howard! He is finally showing post moves, and as a result, scoring more than he ever has before.

That said, an improvement from 20.7 ppg to 23 ppg is not exactly mind blowing.

There's still a lot of room to grow with Dwight, but I honestly just don't see it ever happening. He doesn't have a tenth of a percent of the "I will step on your throat until you die" attitude Jordan had, and in the NBA, that's what makes the supremely talented legends. Dwight's abilities + a killer attitude = at least 30 points per. Maybe more. The dearth of talent at center around the league means he has tens of games a year where he just needs to dominate Jamaal Magloire and Hasheem Thabeet in order to own the league, and he just doesn't want to do it.

Regardless, he is still a force of nature and even all by himself I think he could beat Atlanta. This is not to malign the rest of Orlando's roster; Jameer Nelson, Jason Richardson, J.J. Redick and Hedo Turkoglu are not bad pieces. This team won't make it to the Finals, but it will be enough to get past the Hawks.

Meanwhile, Atlanta is relying on max contract guy Joe Johnson to get it done. Yes, the same Joe Johnson who scored 18 ppg on 44% shooting from the field and 29% shooting from deep this season. $16.3 million this season. And over the next FIVE seasons? He'll earn 19, 21, 23 and 24 million. Per season.

Thank the Hawks and this contract if this NBA lockout extends too far.

On the plus side, Josh Smith is always fun to watch, and the Horford/Pachulia combo may be enough to throw Dwight off his game. Who knows, maybe Jamal Crawford might get hot one game and bury the Magic in 3's.

But in the end, Orlando comes out on top.

Magic in 6.

Boston-New York

Two good teams, both with major flaws. Let me break them down for you.

The Celtics are old and injured and need to rely on good playoff minutes from Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal to be a contender.

The Knicks can't play defense worth a lick and D'Antoni only uses 6 guys a night, leading to fatigue in the long run.

Bill Simmons has been complaining for weeks about the February trade that sent Kendrick Perkins to the Thunder in exchange for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic. Yes, Perkins was somehow a defensive presence down low despite being 6'4" and having no vertical. But he wasn't exactly all-world or anything.

That said, when your backup options are a 39-year-old (THIRTY NINE) Shaq and a guy who scored 5 ppg for you in 24 games, I think I might be upset, too.

Sure, Shaq was surprisingly halfway decent for the Cavs last year in the playoffs, recording 11 points and 5 boards a game on 51% shooting while banging around on defense. I'm just not sure he can do it again.

Add in the reports that apparently Perkins and Rondo were BFF's and Rajon's been moping around for the last two months and you see the problems.

The opposing argument (from GM Danny Ainge) is that the trade set the Celtics up to be more prepared for the future, but it seems they sacrificed the 2010-2011 season to do it. We'll see how it works in the long run.

The Knicks are greatly rejuvenated (Stern rejoices) thanks to signing Amar'''''e Stoudamire last summer and acquiring Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony at the trade deadline. Much like the Heat, these three players are capable of winning a bunch of games on their own, or they would if Chauncey hadn't started declining and Stoudamire could guard anyone/rebound in the playoffs.

I expect some entertaining games in this series as D'Antoni tries to solve the riddle of Boston's defense (lessened with the departure of coach Tom Thibodeau to Chicago). The Celtics don't have anyone who can guard Carmelo, and if Amar'''''e can have his way with Garnett, New York might actually win this series.

But in the end, Playoffs Rajon Rondo is Playoffs Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen can still shoot lights out and Garnett is always able to motivate through insanity, so expect the Celtics to prevail. This round, at least.

Celtics in 7.

I'll throw up a Western Conference prediction list later tonight.

BYU football hype

A poster over at Cougarboard.com shared some information he got from an unnamed member of BYU's administration. Take it for what it's worth, but I found it interesting and exciting.

- Team has the best depth that Bronco has ever had. This is the first year under Bronco that we have actually maxed out our full scholarship allotment (85). In '05 and '06 we were way "under-manned" due to so many academic and HC dismissals. Broco believes this is his first year when we are actually 2-deep at every position.

- Defensive players Bronco is "gushing over" this spring: D. Sorenson (calls him the heir apparent to Andrew Rich), Hague, Hadley, Kaveinga.

- Said Phillips' role is still uncertain. Needs to become more well-rounded if he is to have a significant role as a RB...needs to improve receiver skills to play in the slot. Is definitely an athlete and will be a play-maker - but he needs some seasoning yet.

- Said Bronco/Doman still have a lot of belief in Riley Nelson. Heaps is the clear starter and is better suited to stretch the field and run the offense, but Riley's ability cannot be ignored. There will not be a "split" QB situation, but Riley will very possibly see the field and use his legs to make plays in some capacity.

- Said this year's OL is setting up to be perhaps the best BYU has ever had. All of the starters are veteran players...2-3 with NFL potential. Backups are all legit and there isn't a huge gap between many of the 1's and 2's.

- Said Bronco had a wake-up moment last year when he re-involved himself in coaching instead vs administrating. Said it even surprised him how the players responded. It became evident to him that the offense needed the same type of influence.

- Doman's offense is built around the talents of this team - OL and QB. Said it makes sense to go back under center and "ride the hogs" to victory. Said the offense is built around a strong running game, mixed with a vertical passing attack. Described Anae's offense as ball control - "tick, tick, tick, tick, tick". Described Doman's offense as a down-hill running, big play passing blend - "tick, tick, boom" (his words). Said Doman was frustrated at times with the lack of big play play-calling, and he wants to get back to that. The associated risk is a lot more 3 and outs (something Anae rarely did), but coaches think the D is good enough to hold their ground and give our O more opportunities. In his opinion, Doman's greatest fault is perhaps his impatience...he loves the vertical throws, as does Heaps. It will be a challenge to remain as successful on 3rd down conversion as we have become accustomed to, but we will see a lot more big plays and hopefully more points.

- Said under Doman, the offense is trying to establish the same mentality that the defense has had the past few years - cohesion, unity, work-ethic, attacking mentality. This has been lacking in the past. Defensive players in the past have worked a lot harder than offensive players. The "Band of Brothers" was a mentality of the D moreso than the O.

- Said the existing staff needed the personnel change probably more than the players did. Said he hasn't been around a coaching staff so focused and friendly to each other. "Maybe they're still in the honeymoon, but I've NEVER seen this kind of synergy at BYU in the past."

- Said Quezada is one of Bronco's favorite players on the team. Bronco called him the poster-child of what he is looking for in a non-LDS player. Has an incredible work-ethic and is just very humble and focused.

- Said Bronco has reached a level with the HC Office to where they almost let him handle everything internally. This is because Bronco has proven to take infractions very seriously and he often addresses problenms before it hits their radar. Said Bronco and the HC are on the exact same page, and they see eye to eye on the handling of infractions. Said Bronco has only had one instance in his tenure where he felt the HC was amiss and he let them know it. (He wouldn't tell me what the incident was - I am guessing balloon-gate).

I love that the team is finally full... that there's enough talent for an honest-to-goodness 2-deep, where the fans won't have to cringe in fear when the starter takes a rest. The OL talk is also encouraging... football is won in the trenches, after all... but we've heard this kind of talk before and then watched overweight and out-of-shape big boys fail to protect the quarterback or open up holes for the running backs.

Anyway, good stuff. Only a bajillion more days until BYU @ Ole Miss! Let the countdown begin!

Micro blog post

It's been two months since I last blogged! And I have about 300 different topics to blog about, but no time to write 300 posts.

Here we go!

-Jimmer and BYU made it to the Sweet Sixteen, where they lost because they had zero post presence. Jimmer then won every single Player of the Year award except for the Bob Cousy, which went to the best point guard in the NCAA, Connecticut's Kemba Walker, who had zero assists in the boring and horrific title game against Butler.

-BYU basketball head coach was wooed by several "BCS" schools, including future "BCS" school Utah. He said thanks, but no thanks to all of them, and signed a new 5-year deal with BYU.

-Derek Rose is getting a lot of buzz as the NBA's MVP. In a weak season, I guess he's a viable candidate, but 25 points per game on 44% shooting from the field and 33% from deep isn't overwhelmingly impressive.

-The Jazz were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs by the Lakers, and then turned around and beat L.A. last night, hurting the Kobe Show's chances of getting a #1 seed. All the losing Utah has been doing doesn't bother me... it translates into a better lottery pick this summer, and the young guys need to learn sometime.

-In a related story, hey, the Jazz got Derrick Favors! Sure, they had to give up their All-Star point guard to do it, but as some radio guys argued so astutely last week, what NBA champ got there on the back of a point guard?

-In a related related story, I appear to have been way off about Gordon Hayward. Over the last month or so he's averaged 10 points per game on 54% shooting from the field and 50% from the 3. Plus he had a sick throw down dunk on the entire Lakers team last night, so that was good.

-Spring football camp is a cruel institution. There have been loads of great reports coming out of BYU's camp, which gets me all excited for football season, but then I remember football is like six months away and I get sad. That said, apparently Heaps is a machine, linebacker transfer from USC Uona Kaveinga has been tearing it up and Ross Apo is apparently the second coming of Randy Moss. Spring game this Saturday. I'll be there, snow or shine (it's supposed to snow).

-The uprisings in the Middle East are a giant mess. Egypt will most likely end up being run by someone bent on invading Israel (that won't end well). America's involvement in Libya seems a lukewarm, weird situation; the rebels are safe from being bombed from above, but Gaddafi's troops are free to flamethrower and shoot to their heart's content? I just don't get how air strikes are horrifically against international law, but ground-based weaponry is just fine for slaughtering your own people.

-Carmelo Anthony went to the Knicks, where the team proceeded to lose a bunch of games and then win five in a row as of today. Not sure where I stand with this team yet. The playoffs will be a big help deciding.

-When I purchased an Evo 4G last summer, my biggest concern was the lack of a tactile keyboard. I learned about Swype, a program that uses swiping motions along the touch screen to type instead of "typing." After learning the beta was closed, I waited for an official release. Six months later, I discovered Sprint had pushed out Swype to my phone automatically, and all I had to do was enable it. While annoyed I wasn't exactly informed, I've loved it. I can actually use Google Talk now, and while I may go back to a tactile keyboard one day, for now the touch screen is fine.

-This government shutdown thing is ridiculous. Republicans want to cut .005% of the national budget and Democrats want to cut .002% of it. The argument is reportedly unsolvable. Ugh.

-Pastor Terry Jones burning a Koran is stupid, insensitive and bigoted. Muslims murdering UN workers on another continent in retaliation is evil.

-To finish off where we started, I believe Jimmer will do just fine in the NBA. If he can shoot as well as he did at BYU with teams double and triple teaming him, I think he can handle hitting a few wide-open jumpers for someone like Phoenix or Denver. Stephen Curry is his closest analogue in the association, and he's a good-to-great player for the Warriors.

Now back to your regularly scheduled somewhat frequent blog posting schedule.

San Diego State at BYU, tonight

I'll let ESPN's Pat Forde do the talking.

[San Diego State head coach] Steve Fisher says it's the Game of the Year in the Mountain West Conference. But that's an understatement.

It's the biggest game in MWC history. But that's an understatement, too.

Here's the proper statement: The San Diego State-BYU matchup Wednesday night in Provo, pitting the No. 4 team in the polls against No. 9, is the biggest game in many years for every team that resides outside the power six conferences.

Near as The Minutes can figure, this is the first top-10 matchup of conference opponents from outside the big six leagues in seven years.

Well then. The mood on Cougarboard.com seems to be pretty confident; most people there have picked BYU to win fairly handily. And with Jimmer playing for BYU, who can blame them? Not sure how you stop someone who can shoot from 35 feet out and get past you if you try and play up.

Should be a fun one to watch. Tune into CBS College Sports at 8:00 p.m. Mountain tomorrow to witness the fireworks.

More Jimmer

Video Courtesy of KSL.com

This kid has range.

Plus, he's got a shot of passing Danny Ainge to become BYU's all-time leading career scorer.

According to this Cougarboard.com poster, it's pretty much in the bag, assuming there isn't a major collapse, like Jimmer simply not scoring like he has been or BYU losing in the first round of the MWC tournament and/or the NCAA.

He's a special talent. Get to the Marriott Center and watch him in person if you can. It'll be something to tell the grandkids.

Jimmer

Video Courtesy of KSL.com

47 points. 16-28 from the field, 6-9 from deep, 9-9 at the line.

What more can you say?