28 December 2007

This is why you don't gamble, kids

Bill Simmons, writer for espn.com, writes a column every Friday where he picks who's going to win the NFL games over the weekend. This year he got his wife to make her picks, too, and they kept a running total over the season to see who was more accurate.

Turns out, she picked way more effectively than he did. This week, he let her write the column and give us insight into how she did so well.

It's luck, boys and girls. She used factors that ranged from mascots to where her friends live to the weather to celebrity news. As she writes:

I have probably seen a total of six minutes of football and never turn on ESPN because I'm always afraid someone yelling is going to make one of my kids cry. After 16 straight weeks of not watching football, then finding out at the end of every weekend that my picks had beaten Bill's picks, I came to realize that it's an advantage not to know anything and continue to ignore all things "football."

Then there's Bill. He goes to a friend's house on Sundays so he can watch five games at once. He watches Monday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, Thursday Night Football and Saturday Night Football (two more nights than we agreed on in our prenup). He's in two fantasy leagues and a picks league that, combined, somehow involve everyone he's met over the past 25 years.

So there you go. Gambling on sporting events in a crap shoot. Might as well blindfold yourself and make your picks based on how many times the dog next-door barks over the next ten minutes.

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